Overview

Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has been engulfed in persistent resistance, with young people playing a critical role in mass protests, the civil disobedience movement, and armed uprisings against the junta. The military has responded with brutal crackdowns, employing airstrikes, arbitrary arrests, internet shutdowns, and extrajudicial killings to suppress dissent. Thousands of pro-democracy activists, journalists, and ethnic minorities have been detained or killed in the ongoing violence.

Despite this turmoil, the junta appears determined to push forward with what many see as a sham election in 2025, using a population census scheduled for October 2024 to prepare a voter list. The junta chief has conveyed plans for partial elections, raising concerns about their legitimacy and potential to entrench military rule under the guise of democracy. Reports indicate the junta is transitioning from First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) to Proportional Representation (PR)—a move requiring a constitutional amendment and widely seen as an attempt to dilute opposition influence. The recent replacement of the Union Election Commission (UEC) Chairman with Ko Ko, a figure notorious for overseeing Myanmar’s widely discredited 2010 elections, further underscores these concerns.

The junta has also amended laws governing political parties, lowering membership requirements and shortening registration periods, effectively engineering a political landscape that favors military-backed parties. Meanwhile, diplomatic engagements with India, Thailand, Cambodia, and China suggest some neighboring countries may endorse or assist in the junta-led electoral process. China has already convened discussions with select political parties, while Cambodian and Thai officials have signaled their willingness to cooperate with the UEC.

Many observers believe the junta’s electoral maneuvering is aimed at securing legitimacy rather than fostering genuine democratic transition. Holding elections under these conditions risks further escalating violence and instability, as resistance groups continue to challenge the military’s rule across various regions. Given the junta’s diminishing territorial control, any elections it organizes are expected to be non-inclusive and designed to solidify military dominance rather than reflect the will of the people.

Myanmar: Country Profile

Myanmar: Humanitarian Crisis

According to a UN Human Rights Council (OHCHR) report published on 4 September, the Myanmar military killed 50% more civilians between April 2023 and June 2024 than in the previous 15 months. The junta’s forces were responsible for at least 2,400 deaths during this period, including over 500 women and 300 children, with most casualties occurring in the last nine months—indicating escalating violence. An International Crisis Group report links this surge in attacks to the junta’s weakening control over the country amid the ongoing civil war. The OHCHR report also attributes the rise in civilian deaths to intensified airstrikes and artillery attacks against anti-military groups since October 2023. This violence has displaced over three million people, pushed half the population below the poverty line, and left more than 18 million in need of humanitarian aid.

Myanmar: Conflict Intensity Index

Myanmar: Global Ranking of Democratic Performance

With its central state institutions under the control of an unlawful military regime and engulfed in Southeast Asia’s most significant conflict in decades, Myanmar ranks among the lowest across all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework. It falls within the bottom 25 percent of countries on most indicators. Over the past five years, Myanmar has experienced significant declines in the majority of GSoD indicators, with its performance score dropping to 0 in nearly all measures of Representation. These setbacks have been most pronounced since February 2021, when the military ousted the elected civilian-led government, abruptly ending a decade of tentative democratization that had begun in 2011 through a power-sharing arrangement between the military and elected leaders.

Myanmar: Global State of Democracy Indices 2023

The Illusion of Representation Under the Junta’s New Political Party Registration Process

Conclusion

Myanmar’s 2025 elections are unfolding in a highly volatile and repressive environment, shaped by worsening armed conflict, intensifying military violence, and deepening humanitarian crises. The junta’s control over state institutions, the electoral process, and political participation has created conditions where free and fair elections are impossible. The recent surge in civilian deaths, mass displacement, and poverty—driven by military airstrikes and repression—further diminishes the feasibility of an inclusive electoral process.

International skepticism remains high, yet some regional actors—including China, Russia, Thailand, Cambodia, and India—have engaged with the junta’s election body, potentially lending credibility to what many see as a sham election. With Myanmar ranking among the lowest in democratic performance globally and scoring zero in representation, these elections are unlikely to restore democracy. Instead, they may serve as a tool for the junta to reinforce its grip on power under the pretense of electoral legitimacy. Given the junta’s diminishing territorial control and the ongoing civil resistance, the elections risk exacerbating instability rather than paving the way for a genuine political transition.

The international community and pro-democracy forces must remain vigilant, ensuring that any electoral process reflects the will of the people rather than the military’s authoritarian ambitions.