The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) released today, 1 September 2026, the report of its pre-election assessment for the first BARMM Parliamentary Elections.

Read the full report here: “ANFREL-NDI Pre-Election Assessment Report for the First BARMM Parliamentary Elections“

Executive Summary

After successive postponements, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections scheduled for September 14, and subsequent transition to an elected Parliament will represent a significant milestone in the implementation of the political track of the Bangsamoro peace process, one broadly supported by the stakeholders engaged by the mission. The perceived fairness and credibility of the upcoming elections will be crucial for the acceptance of the outcomes, post-election stability, and the continuation of the peace process. At the same time, important commitments under the normalization track remain outstanding, including the provision of socioeconomic support to former combatants and progress on transitional justice.

The Technical Assessment Mission (TAM) noted robust electoral preparations, generally positive stakeholder confidence in the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) and the Bangsamoro Electoral Office (BEO), substantial security coordination, vibrant multiparty competition, and important measures to broaden political and sectoral representation. 

At the same time, the elections are taking place amid heightened political polarization and persistent risks of localized violence, intimidation and controlled voting, where the actual and perceived impartiality of security actors will be critical. While the legal framework is sufficient for the elections to proceed, repeated and relatively late changes have affected legal certainty, increased voter education demands, and contributed to stakeholder uncertainty. Structural barriers also continue to constrain meaningful participation, particularly for women, sectoral organizations, persons with disabilities, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples (NMIPs) and geographically isolated communities, while disparities in campaign resources, entrenched clan and patronage networks, vote buying and potential abuse of state resources raise concerns for equitable competition. Limited understanding of the new parliamentary system, uneven access to accessible and localized voter education, and risks associated with false or misleading information, and digital campaigning further affect voters’ ability to make informed choices.

Political Polarization and Electoral Security 

Stakeholders described growing divisions within Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-linked political networks, with support increasingly split between Chairman Ahod Ebrahim and the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), and BARMM Interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua and the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP). Both are widely seen as leading contenders, and tensions between the two camps have become increasingly visible ahead of the elections. On August 15, the convoy of Interim Chief Macacua was ambushed after he took an oath as member of the BFP and was designated chairman of the party. While the attack was widely condemned and is currently under investigation by law enforcement agencies, it reflects the fragility of the status quo and the potential for rapid escalation.

Election-related violence has historically been a feature of political competition in the BARMM, concentrated in closely-contested areas and driven by rido, political rivalries, private armed groups and residual extremist elements. Ahead of the September 14 polls, COMELEC has enforced a regionwide gun ban and identified 108 areas of concern classified as red, of which 21 are in Lanao del Sur. 

Security preparations have so far been well-coordinated and substantial with additional deployments of troops from neighboring regions by the military and police. The concern most widely raised by stakeholders is the risk of post-election violence contingent on the fairness and credibility of results, reinforcing that the stability of the region is bound closely to the integrity of the process.

The number of reported election-related security incidents should not be treated as the sole measure of electoral security. Where political authority, clan structures and armed influence overlap, coercion has been known to shape voter behavior in the BARMM through controlled or captive voting. It is in this context that the perceived impartiality of the security sector matters as much as their numbers, ensuring that voters, candidates, election officials and observers feel free to participate on election day.

Legal and Political Framework 

The Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) and the Bangsamoro Electoral Code (BEC)  provide a sufficient legal and institutional basis for the September 14 parliamentary elections to proceed, establishing the essential elements of the BARMM’s party-based parliamentary system within the unitary framework of the Philippines. At the same time, the legal framework has undergone substantial changes in the two years preceding the elections, with implications for legal certainty, predictability, and stakeholder confidence. The Supreme Court’s September 2024 ruling excluding Sulu from the BARMM, followed by the annulment of the parliamentary elections originally scheduled for October 2025, required the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) to undertake new redistricting to establish a legally workable configuration of parliamentary districts. In January 2026, the new majority in the BTA also introduced broader amendments to the BEC, including lowering party membership requirements and the threshold for parliamentary representation and opening the election of sectoral representatives—except those representing non-Moro indigenous peoples—to the general electorate.

These changes have had differing implications for the electoral framework. The redistricting was necessary to address the consequences of Sulu’s exclusion and enable the elections to proceed under a viable constituency structure, while lower thresholds for party participation and representation may broaden opportunities for political competition and access to Parliament. Other amendments represent more substantive changes to the rules governing political and sectoral representation, whose effects can only be fully assessed through their implementation in the first parliamentary elections. At the same time, the timing and political context of these belated revisions have raised concerns among stakeholders, including perceptions that some amendments were intended to constrain the electoral influence of the UBJP amid heightened political polarization. Irrespective of their intent, successive changes to fundamental aspects of the electoral system have added to the demands on voter education and contributed to a broader sense of legal and institutional uncertainty, already reinforced by four successive postponements of the BARMM’s first parliamentary elections.

The principal electoral integrity concern therefore lies less in the sufficiency of the legal framework, which is adequate for the elections to proceed, than in the cumulative effects of repeated and relatively late changes on the predictability of the process and public and stakeholder confidence in the stability of the rules. With the framework now in place, the priority should be to reinforce confidence that it is settled, understood, and operational. 

Clear and authoritative guidance, effective voter education, institutional readiness, and consistent and equal application of the rules will be critical to strengthening legal certainty and ensuring that the elections are administered credibly under the framework now in force.

Representation and Barriers to Participation

Provisions for broader representation – a key promise under the Bangsamoro Organic Law – are widely welcomed as important democratic milestones but key implementation risks persist for both the quota for women and for reserved sectoral seats. While all parties complied with the requirement that women constitute at least 30 percent of their party-list nominees, the placement of women predominantly in lower, less electable positions significantly limits the quota’s potential to translate into meaningful representation. This practice suggests compliance with the letter of the requirement without fully advancing its underlying objective of increasing women’s representation in Parliament. Political parties bear responsibility not only for meeting the numerical quota, but also for nominating women in positions where they have a realistic prospect of being elected. In district races which carry no gender requirement, only 14 of the 107 candidates are women, with one province having no women candidates at all. The reform of the sectoral elections drew particular concern from stakeholders, as sectoral seats for women, youth, settlers, Ulama, and traditional leaders will now be elected at large, replacing the sectoral assemblies established in the original BEC. Parliamentary sectoral organizations are disproportionately disadvantaged as they do not have access to the networks, funding and institutional setup to organize regionwide campaigns for single seats. 

The election process for the NMIP seats, in contrast, drew engagement from diverse groups from the NMIP tribes and allowed for more meaningful participation and representation from within the sector. Persons with disabilities were identified as among the least represented groups, facing inaccessible voter education, physical barriers at polling places, uneven implementation of accommodations, and a complete absence of candidates with disabilities. IDPs and other underserved groups similarly require targeted information and adequate special voting arrangements to participate meaningfully.

Voter Education and Access to Information 

With the BARMM elections being the first parliamentary election in the country, understanding of parliamentary governance remains low among most voters, including over the three votes and how the chief minister is elected. Voter education efforts remain insufficient in reach and accessibility, particularly for NMIPs and geographically isolated communities. Access to electoral information is also shaped heavily by family and community networks and increasingly by digital platforms, particularly Facebook, while uneven connectivity and language barriers further constrain access.

Campaign Environment and Electoral Preparations 

The political competition ahead of the elections is vibrant, with a diverse field of 16 regional parliamentary political parties (RPPPs), 13 of which are contesting for party representative seats, an increase from 10 in the canceled October 2025 polls. The increase in regional political parties including former revolutionaries, traditional political actors and issue or sector-based organizations, signals a broader and more formalized parliamentarian contestation. However, stakeholders flagged influence of entrenched political clans and dynasties, interference from the national government, and uneven access to party finance hindering fair electoral competition and party institutionalisation.

The campaign environment reflects significant disparities between parties and candidates. Larger parties – especially those closely linked to the BTA – benefit from superior resources, wider networks and geographical reach, while smaller and sectoral candidates face high costs and limited machinery. These inequalities intersect with clan influence and patronage dynamics, alongside concerns over vote buying, abuse of state resources, false or misleading information, and digital campaigning pressures.

Electoral preparations by COMELEC and the Bangsamoro Election Office (BEO) appear to be progressing adequately, with improvements in the automated election system (AES) expected to facilitate voting on election day. Mission interlocutors expressed mostly positive views of COMELEC and the BEO independence, capacity, transparency, and engagement with civil society and political stakeholders.

Immediate Priorities and Recommendations 

Taken together, the assessment highlights both the promise and fragility of BARMM’s democratic transition. The report sets out recommendations to address the key issues identified by the mission, including electoral preparedness, campaign finance and accuracy in information, security and impartiality, broad participation, voter education, transparency and independent scrutiny. 

The most immediate priorities are:

• to ensure legal certainty, transparent election administration, and consistent implementation of electoral procedures;
• to ensure impartial and transparent security arrangements and equitable access for voters and electoral stakeholders;
• to intensify accessible, localized, and practical voter education and ensure reasonable accommodations for vulnerable voters;
• to consistently enforce regulations against vote buying, abuse of state resources, and non-compliance with social media and AI-generated campaign content requirements; and
• to strengthen transparency and independent scrutiny by ensuring meaningful access for citizens’ arms, domestic and international observers, media, and civil society.

September 14 carries significance well beyond the conduct of an election. It is an opportunity to honor decades of struggle, negotiation, compromise, and institution-building by demonstrating that political competition in the Bangsamoro can be settled peacefully and democratically. 

The mission therefore calls on all stakeholders, the National Government, electoral and regional institutions, security forces, political parties, candidates, civil society, and communities, to exercise restraint, uphold the rules, and protect the freedom of every Bangsamoro voter. The measure of this historic election should not simply be that it finally takes place, but that it does so peacefully, credibly, and with broad participation, providing the Bangsamoro people with an outcome they can trust and offering the wider region a compelling example of a peace process sustained through democratic choice.

Read the full report here: “ANFREL-NDI Pre-Election Assessment Report for the First BARMM Parliamentary Elections“